Case studies
These are not success stories. They are structural diagnoses.
Case 1 — TREND SYSTEM FAILURE UNDER VOLATILITY EXPANSION
- Problem: Live performance collapsed under volatility expansion despite clean backtests.
- False assumption: Risk and exits remain stable across regimes.
- Intervention: Re-defined position risk and exit policy as volatility-aware system constraints.
- Result: Lower drawdown severity and no regime-specific breakpoints during volatility spikes.(~40% MDD reduction in this case)
Key takeaway
Static exits don’t degrade - they break when regimes shift.
Case 2 — FALSE DIVERSIFICATION THROUGH REGIME OVERLAP
- Problem: More strategies increased portfolio risk faster than returns.
- False assumption: Low correlation implies true diversification.
- Intervention: Mapped regime overlap and tail co-movement; rebuilt allocation as a regime-budgeted risk policy.
- Result: Lower realized volatility, clearer risk attribution, fewer clustered drawdowns.
Key takeaway
Diversification is how strategies fail together - not how they correlate on paper.
Case 3 — Paper edge, live decay
- Problem: Strategy edge decayed after deployment due to slippage and execution friction.
- False assumption: Backtest fills approximate live execution closely enough.
- Intervention: Redefined execution assumptions and exit constraints to reflect latency, liquidity, and fill uncertainty.
- Result: Observed performance converged with realistic execution expectations; execution-driven drawdowns reduced.
Key takeaway
An edge that survives only perfect fills is not an edge.
*If you want to discuss a system, start with its decision boundaries and operating conditions.